褚双燕;王中美;王亚维;

• 1:贵州大学资源与环境工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

水文地质参数影响矿井涌水,而在岩溶山区矿山中,含水介质的非均质性、各向异性特别突出,水文地质参数的获取难度很大.因此,文章以弱化水文地质参数的依赖性为目标,应用相关分析和灰色系统理论模型对老鹰山煤矿1995—2013年的矿井涌水量进行拟合,建立了回归方程模型和GM(1,1)模型,并利用2014—2016年数据对模型预测结果进行了验证.结果表明相关分析中老鹰山煤矿矿井涌水量与降雨量密切相关,相关系数为0.835,模型曲线显示是变化形态上的预测,预测模型的精度达87.19%;灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型的精度良好为82.34%,适合于具有灰色特征的地质数据的模拟、控制和预测,模型曲线显示的是变化趋势上的预测;相关分析法比灰色理论法预测精度高.研究成果为岩溶山区矿井涌水防治提供可靠技术支撑.

关键词(KeyWords)： 矿井涌水量;相关分析法;灰色系统理论;预测模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(41702270);; 贵州省科技计划项目联合基金(黔科合LH字[2017]7284);贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合支撑[2017]2858);; 贵州省自然科学基金项目(黔科合J字[2014]2069);; 贵州省水利厅科技专项经费项目(KT201506);; 贵州大学2017年度学术新苗培养及创新探索专项(黔科合平台人才[2017]5788)

作者(Authors): 褚双燕;王中美;王亚维;

DOI: 10.13568/j.cnki.651094.2019.01.015

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